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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Behavior Over Time Graph.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen20-45 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten1-102-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesBehavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key EventsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of System Archetypes with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
System Archetypes
A paper-based illustration representing Wardley Mapping with its core stages and visible working result.
Systems Thinking
Wardley Mapping
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping