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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20-45 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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