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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Agile Sailboat Retrospective |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When a team wants to read momentum, brakes, and risks together, it offers an easily understandable picture of the situation. It makes drive, obstacles, and headwind visible in the same picture. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Sailboat Board, Risks, Improvement Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RetrospectiveTeamImprovement |
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