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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Agile Bucket System |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |
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