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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
