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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingDecisionRationale | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |
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