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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-20 min daily | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
