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Criterion
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
30-90 min20–45 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
1-6Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption ListRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
DecisionTreeOptions
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test