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| Criterion |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 1-6 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | DecisionTreeOptions | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |
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