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Criterion
Paper illustration for Cynefin Workshop.
Decision Making
Cynefin Workshop
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
60-180 min45-90 min20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
4-202-8Small cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tags1 shared
ComplexitySensemakingDecision
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Red Teaming method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Red Teaming
Paper illustration for Argument Mapping
Decision Making
Argument Mapping
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis