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Criterion
Paper illustration for Change Analysis.
Operations
Change Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLow
Timedifferent
45-120 min2-6 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-63-82-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Change Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action ListFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison
RiskRoot causeSafety
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis