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Criterion
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMedium
Timedifferent
2-6 h1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-10Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test