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Criterion
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration of a calibrated five-by-five risk matrix with response cards.
Decision Making
Risk Matrix
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowLow
Timedifferent
2-6 h30-60 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-103-102-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsRisk Matrix, Top Risk ListAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration of Cost of Delay with its method-specific working model.
Delivery
Cost of Delay