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Criterion
Paper illustration for Behavior Over Time Graph.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
20-45 min45-90 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-102-82-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key EventsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card