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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitysame | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 30-90 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-10 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
