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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 10-30 min je Item | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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