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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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