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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.
Complexitysame
LowLowLow
Timedifferent
45-90 min1-5 Tage20-35 min
Participantsdifferent
2-8Nutzertraffic1-5
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteTest Card with a pre-set threshold
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test