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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of Cost of Delay with its method-specific working model.
Delivery
Cost of Delay
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min20–45 min90-180 min
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional group3-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logCoD Table, Prioritization Sequence
Tags1 shared
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calibrated five-by-five risk matrix with response cards.
Decision Making
Risk Matrix
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Communication Plan
Delivery
Communication Plan
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis