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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 20–45 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
