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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis |
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