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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 15-45 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-8 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |
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