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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Innovation Design Thinking |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For complex user problems with an uncertain cause, the method connects observation, interpretation, and experiment into a learning cycle. It keeps the focus on real needs and avoids premature solution language. This produces robust decisions for product and service. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1 Tag bis mehrere Wochen | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-10 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Problem Statement, Prototype, Test Learnings | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | InnovationPrototypeResearch | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |
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