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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making OODA Loop |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 15-60 min je Zyklus |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates |
Tags1 shared | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy |
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