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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskRoot causeSafety |
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