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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeSafetyIncident |
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