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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighLow
Timedifferent
45-90 min2-6 h15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-82-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Paper illustration for Theory of Constraints Thinking Process.
Systems Thinking
Theory of Constraints Thinking Process