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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-6 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-10 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
