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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-6 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-10 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |
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