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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-6 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |
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