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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Agile Bucket System |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 30-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-12 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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