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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min2-4 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-63-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeSafetyIncident
RiskRoot causeSafety
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis