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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min45-60 min60-120 min
Participantssame
2-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments
Tags1 shared
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card