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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
45-60 min1-4 h or multiple rounds1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-84-12 Experten1-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus NotesExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
EstimationExpertsForecasting
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method