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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calibrated five-by-five risk matrix with response cards.
Decision Making
Risk Matrix
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min1-5 Tage30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-8Nutzertraffic3-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteRisk Matrix, Top Risk List
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of ICE Scoring with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
ICE Scoring