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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-60 min | 1-5 Tage | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | Nutzertraffic | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |
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