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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of RAID Log with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Delivery
RAID Log
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as a RAID Log and a source for status reporting.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min30 min Setup, dann laufend1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
2-81-3 maintaining, briefing for everyoneNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingRAID Log, Status Report SourceInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
RiskTrackingStakeholdersGovernance
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing