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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calibrated five-by-five risk matrix with response cards.
Decision Making
Risk Matrix
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min20–45 min30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional group3-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logRisk Matrix, Top Risk List
Tags1 shared
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis