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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min20–45 min15-30 min
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional group2-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logRoot cause notes, Countermeasures
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis