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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min1-4 Wochen25-40 min
Participantsdifferent
2-86-30 Experten1-5
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesLearning Card with evidence and next action
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning
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Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas