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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min2-6 h1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
2-83-8Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Theory of Constraints Thinking Process.
Systems Thinking
Theory of Constraints Thinking Process