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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-60 min | 2-6 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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