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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Bucket System.
Agile
Bucket System
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.
Complexitysame
MediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-60 min30-90 min1-2 Wochen pro Iteration
Participantsdifferent
2-83-122-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingBucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split CandidatesPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Affinity Estimation.
Agile
Affinity Estimation
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test