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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A3 Problem-Solving workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Operations
A3 Problem Solving
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min45-90 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
2-82-5Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingA3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause AnalysisInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test