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Criterion
Paper illustration for Argument Mapping
Decision Making
Argument Mapping
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
1-3 h45-60 min20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
1-82-8Small cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision RationaleAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
SensemakingDecisionRationale
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Red Teaming method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Red Teaming
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test