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| Criterion |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 10-20 min daily | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1 | 3-10 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |
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