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Criterion
Paper illustration for Affinity Estimation.
Agile
Affinity Estimation
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
30-90 min1-4 Wochen45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-126-30 Experten2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear ItemsExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test