methodatlas
Method guideSystems Thinking

Current Reality Tree

A practical method guide: clarify prerequisites and materials, understand the complete process, and look up outputs, pitfalls, and stop criteria.

ComplexityHigh
Time2-6 h
Participants3-8
FormatWorkshop
MaturityCanonical
Plan
01

Prerequisite

What needs to be finished first

Complete firstObservable UDEs

Several concrete negative effects in the bounded system are evidenced.

Reframe vague judgements as observable statements first.
02

Preparation

What needs to be ready before start

Materials

UDE cards, evidence, directed links and visible AND junctions.

People / roles

System experts with different perspectives and facilitator familiar with TOC logic.

Pre-read

Collect system boundary and verifiable UDEs; keep observations, causal assumptions and possible solutions separate.

Time needed

Several sessions; 60–120 minutes per logic block

Setup

Arrange UDEs above causes; read arrows from cause to effect and mark AND junctions visibly.

03

Core question

The one question this method answers

Which common causes can sufficiently explain the observed undesirable effects?

04

Flow

Phases with goal, actions, output and pitfall

The Theory of Constraints Current Reality Tree connects observed undesirable effects (UDEs) through sufficient cause-and-effect logic. Joint prerequisites use AND; the tree helps examine influential common causes.

Current Reality Tree· worksheet

Fictional example

The Theory of Constraints Current Reality Tree connects observed undesirable effects (UDEs) through sufficient cause-and-effect logic. Joint prerequisites use AND; the tree helps examine influential common causes.

UDEs

Which observed undesirable effects and evidence belong to the system?

Fictional: U1 jobs wait a long time; U2 commitments are missed; U3 staff frequently switch between open jobs.

Causes and conditions

Which complete statements describe causes and intermediate effects?

C1 All incoming jobs start immediately. C2 Arrivals temporarily exceed completions. C3 Many jobs are open simultaneously. C4 A few people split their work across all open jobs.

If-then links

Which conditions operate jointly and what effect follows?

C1 AND C2 → C3. C3 AND C4 → U3. U3 AND measurable switching overhead → lower completion rate. That rate AND high open volume → U1. U1 AND unchanged short commitments → U2.

Checks and gaps

Which arrows are evidenced, what assumptions remain and which counterexamples are checked?

Fictional board history supports high open volume and switching. The effect of switching cost remains a hypothesis; sample times. Check material shortages as another cause.

Change focus

Which confirmed cause warrants further change analysis and where does the claim end?

Starting every job immediately is a testable policy candidate. Next examine limiting parallel work as a solution hypothesis; do not claim its effect yet.

All example details are fictional and illustrate the application.

Flying Logic: Current Reality Tree

  1. 1

    UDEs

    UDEs capture

    Goal

    UDE list

    Inputs for this step

    • System observations
    • Evidence

    Actions

    • State concrete undesirable effects as full sentences with evidence and system boundary.
    • Do not embed a solution or cause in the observation.

    Output

    UDE list

    Is every UDE verifiably observed?

    Quality check

    Is every UDE verifiably observed?

    Pitfall

    Missing software is already treated as an undesirable effect. Name the actual negative consequence.

    Timing: 15–25 minutes

  2. 2

    Causal chains

    Causal chains

    Goal

    Causal skeleton

    Inputs for this step

    • UDEs
    • Process knowledge

    Actions

    • Connect causes and intermediate effects to UDEs using if-then statements.
    • Add missing joint prerequisites through an AND junction.

    Output

    Causal skeleton

    Are the named conditions sufficient for the effect?

    Quality check

    Are the named conditions sufficient for the effect?

    Timing: 25–45 minutes

  3. 3

    Logic review

    Check logic

    Goal

    Reviewed logic

    Inputs for this step

    • Causal skeleton
    • Counterevidence

    Actions

    • Check clarity, existence, causality and sufficiency of every link.
    • Seek additional causes, counterexamples, reversed arrows and circular justification.
    • Mark genuine delayed feedback loops separately; feedback is not proof of its own starting assumptions.

    Output

    Reviewed logic

    Does the link withstand a concrete counterexample?

    Quality check

    Does the link withstand a concrete counterexample?

    Pitfall

    Shared belief replaces logic checks. Ask someone to read the link critically and try to refute it.

    Timing: 30–60 minutes

  4. 4

    Core causes

    Examine common driver

    Goal

    Change focus

    Inputs for this step

    • Reviewed logic
    • Scope of influence

    Actions

    • Trace causes explaining several important UDEs and examine their actual influence.
    • Keep unexplained effects and model limits visible.

    Output

    Change focus

    Does the driver explain multiple UDEs through checked paths?

    Quality check

    Does the driver explain multiple UDEs through checked paths?

    Pitfall

    A single core fault is sought at any cost. Allow multiple causes when evidence requires them.

    Timing: 15–30 minutes

05

Artifact

What comes out at the end

Sketch: what the artifact looks like

Current Reality Tree · TOCUnerwünschte Effekte über Ursache-Wirkungs-Logik zu Kernproblemen und Hebelpunkten verdichten
Current Reality TreeDas Visual zeigt unerwünschte Effekte, kausale Annahmen, ein Kernproblem und einen Hebelpunkt im Current Reality Tree.Unerwünschte Effekte zu einem Kernproblem zurückführenDer Baum macht Ursache-Wirkungs-Logik sichtbar und zeigt, wo eine Intervention das System verändern kann.wenn, dannLogik prüfenKernursacheUDE 1lange WartezeitUDE 2Qualität sinktUDE 3Prioritäten kippenUDE 4Durchsatz stocktPolicylokale OptimierungWIP steigtmehr Arbeit im SystemAbhängigkeitenÜbergaben blockierenKernproblembegrenzender KonfliktHebelpunktConstraint gezielt verändern
Form

Reviewed causal tree with UDEs, intermediate effects, AND conditions, assumptions and a justified change focus.

Versioning / ownership

Record date and scope; retain the previous version and reason when changing it.

Tool alternatives
  • Cards and arrows
  • TOC diagram software
  • Statement and link register

current-reality-tree-working-template.md

Collect system boundary and verifiable UDEs; keep observations, causal assumptions and possible solutions separate.

Current Reality Tree: Worksheet

Question

To be confirmed

Desired outcome

To be confirmed

Scope

Complete cycle Time: Several sessions; 60–120 minutes per logic block

Complete this worksheet on paper or in your own document during the work.

Preparation for this scope

Method setup

  • Materials: UDE cards, evidence, directed links and visible AND junctions.
  • Roles: System experts with different perspectives and facilitator familiar with TOC logic.
  • Advance information: Collect system boundary and verifiable UDEs; keep observations, causal assumptions and possible solutions separate.
  • Overall time needed: Several sessions; 60–120 minutes per logic block
  • Setup: Arrange UDEs above causes; read arrows from cause to effect and mark AND junctions visibly.

Prepare for the work steps

UDEs: UDEs capture

  • System observations
  • Evidence

Causal chains: Causal chains

  • UDEs
  • Process knowledge

Logic review: Check logic

  • Causal skeleton
  • Counterevidence

Core causes: Examine common driver

  • Reviewed logic
  • Scope of influence

Current Reality Tree· worksheet

UDEs

Which observed undesirable effects and evidence belong to the system?

...

Causes and conditions

Which complete statements describe causes and intermediate effects?

...

If-then links

Which conditions operate jointly and what effect follows?

...

Checks and gaps

Which arrows are evidenced, what assumptions remain and which counterexamples are checked?

...

Change focus

Which confirmed cause warrants further change analysis and where does the claim end?

...

Answer the prompts with your own information. Explicitly mark unknowns and assumptions.

Flying Logic: Current Reality Tree

UDEs: UDEs capture

Expected artifact: UDE list

Is every UDE verifiably observed?

Entry:

...

  • Is every UDE verifiably observed?

Causal chains: Causal chains

Expected artifact: Causal skeleton

Are the named conditions sufficient for the effect?

Entry:

...

  • Are the named conditions sufficient for the effect?

Logic review: Check logic

Expected artifact: Reviewed logic

Does the link withstand a concrete counterexample?

Entry:

...

  • Does the link withstand a concrete counterexample?

Core causes: Examine common driver

Expected artifact: Change focus

Does the driver explain multiple UDEs through checked paths?

Entry:

...

  • Does the driver explain multiple UDEs through checked paths?

Open questions and next steps

...

Method guide: https://methodatlas.meierhoff-systems.de/en/methods/current-reality-tree/run-sheet

06

Example output

Concrete filled scenario, fictional example

Fictional example for orientation. Counts and timings describe this case and are not universal requirements.

current-reality-tree-beispiel.md

Concrete filled scenario, fictional example

Fictional example

UDEs: Fictional: U1 jobs wait a long time; U2 commitments are missed; U3 staff frequently switch between open jobs.

Causes and conditions: C1 All incoming jobs start immediately. C2 Arrivals temporarily exceed completions. C3 Many jobs are open simultaneously. C4 A few people split their work across all open jobs.

If-then links: C1 AND C2 → C3. C3 AND C4 → U3. U3 AND measurable switching overhead → lower completion rate. That rate AND high open volume → U1. U1 AND unchanged short commitments → U2.

Checks and gaps: Fictional board history supports high open volume and switching. The effect of switching cost remains a hypothesis; sample times. Check material shortages as another cause.

Change focus: Starting every job immediately is a testable policy candidate. Next examine limiting parallel work as a solution hypothesis; do not claim its effect yet.

07

Pitfalls

Recognize symptoms and steer against them

Quick overview, the full text is in the matching phase in the flow

  1. UDEs captureMissing software is already treated as an undesirable effect.View in phase
  2. Causal chainsOne factor is treated as sufficient despite needing another condition.View in phase
  3. Check logicShared belief replaces logic checks.View in phase
  4. Examine common driverA single core fault is sought at any cost.View in phase
08

Stop criteria

When to pause, resolve prerequisites, or choose another approach

If an arrow shows only simultaneity, examine mechanism, missing conditions and counterexamples before treating it as causal.

Method after Eliyahu M. Goldratt. Curated with 1 sources.

Sources: Flying Logic: Current Reality Tree

Flow, timeboxes, and pitfalls are editorially curated practice recommendations based on the listed sources.

Where to go next?

Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree

Designs the desired future state for the found change focus.

Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud

Resolves the core conflict behind the shared change focus.

View in playbookUnderstand a Systemic Problem and Find LeverageMove from a recurring symptom to the underlying system structure and a concrete leverage point.

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