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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-3 h | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 4-10 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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