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| Criterion |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 4-12 Experten | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |
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